LOUREY CAMPAIGN RELEASES DELEGATE COUNT AND CHALLENGES THE ACCURACY OF THE NUMBERS RELEASED BY THE KELLEY CAMPAIGN

Numbers reveal a tight two person race between Mike Hatch and Senator Lourey

There have been many rumors swirling around in the political winds for the last few days about which campaign for Governor has the most accurate count on committed, identified delegates to the state endorsing convention. In fact, the Steve Kelley campaign recently released an email to supporters claiming to have secured a second place position in the overall delegate count based upon a particular calculation of delegates. As you might expect, our numbers are different -significantly different.

Clearly, the true test of accuracy will be the first ballot on June 10 in Rochester. However we strongly believe that our numbers based upon a sophisticated tracking system that only counts identified elected delegates are very accurate and, as a result, are a true reflection of current delegate support.
Senator Lourey at a DFL Crogressional Unit 4 Convention talking with Dane Smith.

Our Tracking System
The Lourey campaign team has the most experience in federal, state, and local elections of any of the gubernatorial campaigns. Our campaign team has put together a sophisticated tracking system to ensure that we are accurately representing the status of the campaign to Becky and her supporters. Our tracking system is based upon four interconnected sources of information:

1. Early voter identification: Through both paid and volunteer phone banks, the Lourey campaign developed a baseline of support for each candidate.
2. Direct contact: Campaign and volunteer staff attended every convention and tracked all sub-caucuses - candidate, issue and undeclared - and engaging in direct delegate contact. They tracked how sub-caucuses merged, and who were elected delegates. By comparing the results with voter identification calls, the Lourey campaign is able to identify potential delegate fluidity.
3. Direct phone contact: Senator Lourey, surrogates, volunteer supporters and campaign staff call delegates to confirm candidate preference. Calls are made and information entered into the database from over 10 locations around the state every night.
4. Secondary sources: Delegate lists are regularly cross checked against other candidate's reported donor and published supporter lists.

Delegate Snapshot
Any calculation of delegate support is like a poll. It is simply a snapshot of to whom the delegates are giving their support at that moment. As a result of our calculations, we believe the delegate count is as follows:


Why We Know the Kelley Campaign Numbers are Inaccurate.
It is obvious to most observers that the Kelley campaign is presenting their numbers to put their candidate in the best light in order to try to build momentum entering the convention. In their carefully worded email, the Kelley campaign qualifies its count by saying; "We are including in our 'committed delegates' count only those people who have been elected in a named sub-caucus, or who have expressed publicly their support for a particular candidate." Even a casual observer knows that this methodology will provide results that do not reliably compare campaigns.

Those of us who have been working on statewide races and have lived through a number of senate, county unit and state conventions can recognize the inexperience of the Kelley campaign staffers who do not have similar experience in counting delegates.

Senator Lourey speaking at McLoud County DFL Convention..


Flawed Methodology
We believe the Kelley campaign methodology is flawed, and therefore misleading, for the following reasons:

1. Beyond Named Subcaucuses: Simply counting delegates who have been elected in a named subcaucus does not capture all committed delegates. That calculation fails to include committed delegates in issue subcaucuses and subcaucuses called for a candidate in a different race who support a candidate in the governor's race.
2. Elections at Large: Not all county conventions subcaucused, yet they still elected delegates. For example, the Cook County convention did not subcaucus but elected three Lourey delegates, in Grant County two of the three delegates are committed to Senator Lourey. Leaving out conventions misses that Becky Lourey's sister and brother in law were elected at their county unit!
3. Assuming Support: Counting a person as a 'hard' delegate based upon a public declaration of support is a three fold mistake. First, it will always tilt the count toward the campaign collecting the data. Good campaigns want comparative data, which public declarations of support simply do not provide. Second, there are many reasons a campaign might be provided inaccurate information. Because of friendships or loyalties, the choice of the delegate is often kept private for good reason. Lastly, people change their minds. For example, in its recent email the Kelley campaign quotes Arlene Pierce of Lake of the Woods and identifies her as a Steve Kelley delegate. She is not. As of this morning, she is a committed Becky Lourey delegate.

Senator Lourey at DFL Congressional District 4 Conventionwith staff member Brenda Bell Brown..

Proper Focus
Everyone's numbers show one thing: there are a significant number of undecided State delegates. The race remains open, and the results of the convention are not determined. The race will not be won by manufacturing momentum with press releases. It will be determined by the 1442 delegates (1355.5 votes) who come to Rochester after a careful evaluation of the three candidates and make their choice.

Senator Becky Lourey believes that the DFL endorsement will be earned by the candidate with the strongest vision for Minnesota, the most experienced leadership on critical DFL issues and values, and the best chance of defeating Tim Pawlenty in November.

Senator Lourey believes that her 16 years of leadership on health care, peace, early childhood education and the environment make her the best choice to represent the DFL.

Her experience defeating incumbents, compelling personal story, and ability to connect with and motivate people across the state make her the best candidate to defeat Tim Pawlenty in November.

Her vision to guarantee universal health care by 2010 and energy independence by 2030, and of making Minnesota the best place in the nation to be a child will make her one of Minnesota's great Governors.